Why North Korea will endure despite U.N. sanctions

By Angelo Prieto

I remember watching TV late one night on October 8th; I always scan the news before I go to bed just to make sure I don’t miss anything. The “breaking news” caption on headline news got my blood up, I quickly scanned the screen for a hint of what was breaking, the only words I saw were: North Korea-Nuclear Test and Bush shits pants! This was to be a long night indeed.
Since these developments the world reaction has been one of fear, abhorrence and plain incompetence. There is really no need to recall the news we all know what happened, and what happened was nothing! The decrepit institution known as the U.N. or League of Nations (if your older than 80) tried to pass sanctions that would increase inspections of cargo passing between N. Korea and China; Seaborne cargo however would not be inspected. The Chinese who earlier tagged teamed with North Korea and nearly kicked our asses out off the Korean peninsula are now charged with leading the sortie to punish N.K. (North Korea) The question is: just how will this happen and will the sanctions yield results? The answer I believe will be no!
According to Time magazine over 90% of N. K.’s oil supply comes from China, as well as half of its food imports. The U.S. believes that this is the main nerve cluster that when pinched by China will make Kim Jong IL drop his nuclear ambitions. Normally this sounds like a good strategic maneuver, even if just in theory, however the Chinese more than anyone, are acutely aware of the economic collapse this would cause the North Korean economy. Let us not forget that there is an 880-mile border between N.K. and China. This might be Kim Jong IL’s ace in the hole, Kim knows that an economic collapse would invite massive civil unrest, not just on the Korean Peninsula but the view from abroad would not be too favorable. The Chinese do not want to take the brunt of such a calamity especially since Western powers did almost nothing to curb Kim’s nuclear appetite. Not to mention that such unrest would no doubt lure millions of North Korean refuges to the Chinese border wanting a spot of lunch at their favorite Chinese restaurants.
Thus far the four main banks of China have ceased handling business transactions with North Korea, the Chinese have also increased inspection of goods crossing from China to North Korea. Chinese newspapers also claimed that many of the border crossings between China and N.K. have been closed, with the exception of Dandong (in China) and Sinuiju (N.K.) this is by far the most heavily trafficked crossing. This hub accounts for the majority of all trade between China and N.K.


With Chinese exports to N.K. amounting to $300 million and $150 million in food alone; it is no wonder the U.N. is so dependant on the Chinese to put the squeeze on North Korea, however with that much at stake China might decide to hand the burden over to the U.S. and our allies and why not? Diplomacy is not one of the Bush Administration’s strongest attributes. These sanctions will just be business as usual until the North Koreans decide how to handle their fates; the ball is in their poorly lit court.